Friday 27 May 2016

Advice for undecideds in the EU Referendum

I've been thinking about the EU Referendum and can't decide how to vote. But a few things have become very clear, so here are some of my conclusions :-

1) Don't beat yourself up over it.

There's nothing wrong with being undecided. It shows that you are thinking about the issues and trying to decide rationally. That's a lot more effort than the people who blindly follow a leader, or don't even vote, will be putting in. There's no right or wrong answer... and you only have one vote... so whatever you decide as an individual wont change the result in itself.

Life will go on whatever the decision. And we'll probably be OK either way!

2) There are no facts.

Whatever one side says, the other side has "facts" to say the opposite. It is pointless looking for impartial facts because everyone is biased in some way. The promise of an honest debate based on good information lasted about 5 minutes until each side found something dodgy that looked very convincing.

All the "information" about what might happen in the future is based on assumptions about what might happen if we stay or go. And all projections are subject to errors on top of that. You are better off looking at the past, not trying to guess who has the best crystal ball.

At the end of the day you are going to have to make a judgement based mostly on gut instinct. Sorry, that's how it is.

3) The turnout may be disappointing.

I wish voting were compulsory on things like this. If the turnout is such that the winning side gets less than 50% of the people who could have voted, then I think that leaves the door open for bad feeling on the losing side that can continue to fester for years.

A result like 30% for, 30% against, 40% don't know, tells you a lot more than 50% for, 50% against with a 60% turnout. Because you never know if people don't vote because they can't decide, or because they can't be bothered, or because they want to protest against the vote for some reason.

4) It will be close.

Which is bad. Because the arguments haven't been made convincingly by either side. So after the vote about half the country will probably be really pissed off that their choice was not the winner.

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